The Prediction Markets

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 23?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

740 97.8%

Next is 755 at 89%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
740
97.8%
Polymarket 97.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
740
Last price
97.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
95.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
755
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
755
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
750
87.3%
Polymarket 87.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 97.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
750
Last price
87.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
76.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Polymarket
745
79.9%
Polymarket 79.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
745
Last price
79.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
60.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
760
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
760
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$713
Trade this on Polymarket
765
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
765
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Polymarket
770
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
770
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Polymarket
780
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
780
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
785
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
785
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
775
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
775
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
790
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
790
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 740
  • 755
  • 750

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 23?". 740 leads at 97.8%. Next is 755 at 89%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 23?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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