The Prediction Markets

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

735 99.8%

Next is 745 at 97.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
735
99.8%
Polymarket 99.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
735
Last price
99.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
99.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Polymarket
745
97.9%
Polymarket 97.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
745
Last price
97.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Polymarket
740
96.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
740
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
93.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Polymarket
750
89.1%
Polymarket 89.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
750
Last price
89.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
79.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket
755
84.5%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
755
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Polymarket
760
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
760
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Polymarket
765
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
765
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
785
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
785
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
775
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
775
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
780
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
780
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
770
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
770
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 735
  • 745
  • 740

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26?". 735 leads at 99.8%. Next is 745 at 97.9%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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