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Best ask
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What the markets expect
7,625 to 7,649.9999 27.7%
Next is 7,650 to 7,674.9999 at 27.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
7,625 to 7,649.999927.7%34%27.6% fair29¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 52s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)7,625 to 7,649.999927.7%Kalshi 34%(27.6% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
7,625 to 7,649.9999
27.7%
34%
27.6% fair
29¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
7,625 to 7,649.9999
27.7%
Kalshi 34%(27.6% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,625 to 7,649.9999
- Last price
- 34%
- Fair, margin removed
- 27.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $242
7,650 to 7,674.999927.7%34%27.6% fair32¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 52s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)7,650 to 7,674.999927.7%Kalshi 34%(27.6% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
7,650 to 7,674.9999
27.7%
34%
27.6% fair
32¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
7,650 to 7,674.9999
27.7%
Kalshi 34%(27.6% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,650 to 7,674.9999
- Last price
- 34%
- Fair, margin removed
- 27.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $895
7,675 to 7,699.999913%16%13% fair11¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 52s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)7,675 to 7,699.999913%Kalshi 16%(13% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
7,675 to 7,699.9999
13%
16%
13% fair
11¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
7,675 to 7,699.9999
13%
Kalshi 16%(13% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,675 to 7,699.9999
- Last price
- 16%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $56
7,600 to 7,624.99999%11%8.9% fair11¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 52s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)7,600 to 7,624.99999%Kalshi 11%(8.9% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
7,600 to 7,624.9999
9%
11%
8.9% fair
11¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
7,600 to 7,624.9999
9%
Kalshi 11%(8.9% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,600 to 7,624.9999
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $190
7,575 to 7,599.99994.9%6%4.9% fair2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 52s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)7,575 to 7,599.99994.9%Kalshi 6%(4.9% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
7,575 to 7,599.9999
4.9%
6%
4.9% fair
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
7,575 to 7,599.9999
4.9%
Kalshi 6%(4.9% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,575 to 7,599.9999
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $151
7,700 to 7,724.99994.9%6%4.9% fair2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 52s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)7,700 to 7,724.99994.9%Kalshi 6%(4.9% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
7,700 to 7,724.9999
4.9%
6%
4.9% fair
2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
7,700 to 7,724.9999
4.9%
Kalshi 6%(4.9% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,700 to 7,724.9999
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $58
7,550 to 7,574.99992.4%3%2.4% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 52s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)7,550 to 7,574.99992.4%Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
7,550 to 7,574.9999
2.4%
3%
2.4% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
7,550 to 7,574.9999
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,550 to 7,574.9999
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $20
7,525 to 7,549.99990.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,525 to 7,549.99990.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,525 to 7,549.9999
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,525 to 7,549.9999
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,525 to 7,549.9999
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $26
7,725 to 7,749.99990.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 52s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)7,725 to 7,749.99990.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
7,725 to 7,749.9999
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
7,725 to 7,749.9999
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,725 to 7,749.9999
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $65
7,750 to 7,774.99990.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,750 to 7,774.99990.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,750 to 7,774.9999
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,750 to 7,774.9999
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,750 to 7,774.9999
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $13
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
7,374.9999 or below0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,374.9999 or below0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,374.9999 or below
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,374.9999 or below
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,374.9999 or below
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,375 to 7,399.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,375 to 7,399.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,375 to 7,399.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,375 to 7,399.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,375 to 7,399.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,400 to 7,424.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,400 to 7,424.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,400 to 7,424.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,400 to 7,424.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,400 to 7,424.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,425 to 7,449.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,425 to 7,449.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,425 to 7,449.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,425 to 7,449.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,425 to 7,449.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,450 to 7,474.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,450 to 7,474.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,450 to 7,474.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,450 to 7,474.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,450 to 7,474.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,475 to 7,499.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,475 to 7,499.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,475 to 7,499.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,475 to 7,499.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,475 to 7,499.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,500 to 7,524.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,500 to 7,524.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,500 to 7,524.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,500 to 7,524.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,500 to 7,524.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,775 to 7,799.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,775 to 7,799.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,775 to 7,799.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,775 to 7,799.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,775 to 7,799.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,800 to 7,824.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,800 to 7,824.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,800 to 7,824.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,800 to 7,824.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,800 to 7,824.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,825 to 7,849.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,825 to 7,849.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,825 to 7,849.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,825 to 7,849.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,825 to 7,849.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,850 to 7,874.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,850 to 7,874.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,850 to 7,874.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,850 to 7,874.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,850 to 7,874.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,875 to 7,899.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,875 to 7,899.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,875 to 7,899.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,875 to 7,899.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,875 to 7,899.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,900 to 7,924.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,900 to 7,924.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,900 to 7,924.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,900 to 7,924.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,900 to 7,924.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,925 to 7,949.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,925 to 7,949.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,925 to 7,949.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,925 to 7,949.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,925 to 7,949.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,950 to 7,974.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,950 to 7,974.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,950 to 7,974.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,950 to 7,974.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,950 to 7,974.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
7,975 to 7,999.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7,975 to 7,999.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,975 to 7,999.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
7,975 to 7,999.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,975 to 7,999.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
8,000 to 8,024.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)8,000 to 8,024.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,000 to 8,024.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,000 to 8,024.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,000 to 8,024.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
8,025 to 8,049.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)8,025 to 8,049.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,025 to 8,049.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,025 to 8,049.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,025 to 8,049.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
8,050 to 8,074.99990.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)8,050 to 8,074.99990.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,050 to 8,074.9999
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,050 to 8,074.9999
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,050 to 8,074.9999
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
8,075 or above0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)8,075 or above0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,075 or above
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,075 or above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,075 or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 7,625 to 7,649.9999
- 7,650 to 7,674.9999
- 7,675 to 7,699.9999
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.035 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "S&P price range on Oct 23, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". 7,625 to 7,649.9999 leads at 27.7%. Next is 7,650 to 7,674.9999 at 27.7%. $2K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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