The Prediction Markets

Sporting Goods Ad Spend in October

Closes
Nov 6, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Above 50 98%

Next is Above 85 at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 50
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 85
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 85
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 105
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 105
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 95
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 95
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 115
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 115
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 225
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 225
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 50
  • Above 85
  • Above 105

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Sporting Goods Ad Spend in October". Above 50 leads at 98%. Next is Above 85 at 97%. $10K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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