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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 74%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 66.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds74%74%54¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed94¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $106 (1.06x)O/U 0.5 Rounds74%Polymarket 74%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
74%
74%
54¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
94¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds66.5%66.5%54¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed79¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $127 (1.27x)O/U 1.5 Rounds66.5%Polymarket 66.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
66.5%
66.5%
54¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
79¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 66.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds63.5%63.5%63¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)O/U 2.5 Rounds63.5%Polymarket 63.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
63.5%
63.5%
63¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 63.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $5K
Fight to Go the Distance?57.5%57.5%56¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Fight to Go the Distance?57.5%Polymarket 57.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
57.5%
57.5%
56¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
59¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 57.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke56.5%56.5%56¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke56.5%Polymarket 56.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke
56.5%
56.5%
56¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke
- Last price
- 56.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $22K
Decision or Draw56%56%50¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed62¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Decision or Draw56%Polymarket 56%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Decision or Draw
56%
56%
50¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
62¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Decision or Draw
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
Fight won by decision?56%56%50¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed62¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Fight won by decision?56%Polymarket 56%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Fight won by decision?
56%
56%
50¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
62¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Fight won by decision?
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
Stephen Thompson by Decision40%Not listed40%39¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 8 min ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Stephen Thompson by Decision40%Kalshi 40%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Stephen Thompson by Decision
40%
Not listed
40%
39¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Stephen Thompson by Decision
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stephen Thompson by Decision
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $35
Fight won by KO/TKO?38%38%26¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Fight won by KO/TKO?38%Polymarket 38%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
38%
38%
26¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $10
Ends before Round 3?33%33%31¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Ends before Round 3?33%Polymarket 33%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Ends before Round 3?
33%
33%
31¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Ends before Round 3?
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Radtke to win by KO/TKO?30.5%30.5%13¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Radtke to win by KO/TKO?30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Radtke to win by KO/TKO?
30.5%
30.5%
13¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Radtke to win by KO/TKO?
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Radtke to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Thompson to win by KO/TKO?30.5%30.5%13¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Thompson to win by KO/TKO?30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Thompson to win by KO/TKO?
30.5%
30.5%
13¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Thompson to win by KO/TKO?
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thompson to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Radtke in Round 127.5%27.5%5¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Radtke in Round 127.5%Polymarket 27.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Radtke in Round 1
27.5%
27.5%
5¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Radtke in Round 1
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Radtke in Round 1
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by submission?27%27%6¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Fight won by submission?27%Polymarket 27%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by submission?
27%
27%
6¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by submission?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Radtke in Round 227%27%4¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Radtke in Round 227%Polymarket 27%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Radtke in Round 2
27%
27%
4¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Radtke in Round 2
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Radtke in Round 2
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Radtke in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Radtke in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Radtke in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Radtke in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Radtke in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 126.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Thompson in Round 126.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 1
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thompson in Round 1
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 226.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Thompson in Round 226.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 2
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thompson in Round 2
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Thompson in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Thompson in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thompson in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ18%Not listed18%17¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 8 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ18%Kalshi 18%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ
18%
Not listed
18%
17¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $336
Ends before Round 2?17%17%15¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Ends before Round 2?17%Polymarket 17%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Ends before Round 2?
17%
17%
15¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Ends before Round 2?
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
Charles Radtke by KO/TKO/DQ16%Not listed16%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 8 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Charles Radtke by KO/TKO/DQ16%Kalshi 16%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Charles Radtke by KO/TKO/DQ
16%
Not listed
16%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Charles Radtke by KO/TKO/DQ
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Radtke by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $80
Charles Radtke by Decision15%Not listed15%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 8 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Charles Radtke by Decision15%Kalshi 15%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Charles Radtke by Decision
15%
Not listed
15%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Charles Radtke by Decision
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Radtke by Decision
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $396
Charles Radtke by Submission8%Not listed8%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 8 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Charles Radtke by Submission8%Kalshi 8%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Charles Radtke by Submission
8%
Not listed
8%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Charles Radtke by Submission
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Radtke by Submission
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $159
Stephen Thompson by Submission4%Not listed4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 8 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Stephen Thompson by Submission4%Kalshi 4%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Stephen Thompson by Submission
4%
Not listed
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Stephen Thompson by Submission
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stephen Thompson by Submission
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $15
Draw/No Contest2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 8 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest2%Kalshi 2%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 74%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 66.5%. $29K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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