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Yes 35.5%
Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
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Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
Live prediction market odds for "Supreme Court overturns federal ban on home distilleries?". Yes leads at 35.5%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on or before July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the Supreme Court of the United States issues an opinion, per curiam decision, or judgment in Department of Justice v. McNutt or any consolidated case that holds the federal prohibition on the distillation of distilled spirits in a dwelling house facially invalid. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A holding that Congress lacks the constitutional authority to enact the prohibition will qualify regardless of the constitutional ground relied upon or the scope of the relief or remedy ordered. Where the Court affirms in part and reverses in part, issues a plurality opinion, or resolves the case on alternative grounds, this market will resolve to "Yes" only if the prohibition on distillation in a dwelling house itself is invalidated on its face. A decision that invalidates the prohibition only as applied to particular parties or circumstances, without such a holding, will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the Court issues a merits ruling in Department of Justice v. McNutt that leaves the prohibition facially valid, or if Department of Justice v. McNutt and any consolidated case are terminated without a ruling that satisfies the conditions above, including by a dismissal as improvidently granted, a denial of certiorari, a summary disposition or emergency docket order that does not reach the question presented, a non-merits vacatur or remand, a settlement, a voluntary dismissal, or any other termination without a merits ruling. If no qualifying ruling has been issued by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, including because the case remains undecided, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the Court's opinion or judgment as announced; a subsequent petition for rehearing will not delay or alter resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.