The Prediction Markets

Swiss Federal Council by-election winner?

Closes
Dec 9, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Marco Chiesa 23.5%

Next is Thomas Aeschi at 21.6%. The venues differ most on Jean-Pierre Gallati (Polymarket 24%, Kalshi 15%), a 9.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marco Chiesa
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Chiesa
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Aeschi
21.6%
Polymarket 24%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Aeschi
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$712
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Aeschi
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Jean-Pierre Gallati
20.8%
Polymarket 24%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Pierre Gallati
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$372
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Pierre Gallati
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Céline Amaudruz
20.8%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 19%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Céline Amaudruz
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Céline Amaudruz
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

Pierre Alain Schnegg
17.4%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pierre Alain Schnegg
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pierre-Alain Schnegg
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

Franz Ruppen
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Franz Ruppen
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Rémy Wyssmann
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $633 (6.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rémy Wyssmann
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15.8¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$633 (6.33x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Graber
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Graber
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
André Rüegsegger
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
André Rüegsegger
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicolas Kolly
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolas Kolly
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Yvan Pahud
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yvan Pahud
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Franz Grüter
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franz Grüter
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Egger
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Egger
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Götte
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Götte
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thomas Matter
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Matter
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Natalie Rickli
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Rickli
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
Pierre Alain Schnegg
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pascal Schmid
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 10, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Assembly of Switzerland
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 10, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marco Chiesa
  • Thomas Aeschi
  • Jean-Pierre Gallati

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Marco Chiesa for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Swiss Federal Council by-election winner?". Marco Chiesa leads at 23.5%. Next is Thomas Aeschi at 21.6%. $3K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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