The Prediction Markets

Talen Energy TWh generation in Q1 2027

Closes
Sep 1, 2027, in 10 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Above 18 twh 85.5%

Next is Above 21 twh at 73%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 18 twh
85.5%
Kalshi 85.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18 twh
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21 twh
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21 twh
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20 twh
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20 twh
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 22 twh
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 22 twh
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23 twh
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23 twh
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 24 twh
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 24 twh
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 26 twh
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 26 twh
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$656
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 27 twh
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 27 twh
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 28 twh
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 28 twh
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 29 twh
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 29 twh
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 18 twh
  • Above 21 twh
  • Above 20 twh

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Talen Energy TWh generation in Q1 2027". Above 18 twh leads at 85.5%. Next is Above 21 twh at 73%. $15K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Sep 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets