The Prediction Markets

Target Credit Card Spend in October

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$25K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 87 98%

Next is Above 90 at 95.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 87
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 87
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 93
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 93
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 96
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 96
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 99
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 99
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 101
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 101
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 102
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 102
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 103
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 103
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 105
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 105
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Above 104
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 104
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 108
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 108
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 111
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 111
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 114
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 114
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 117
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 117
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 87
  • Above 90
  • Above 93

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Target Credit Card Spend in October". Above 87 leads at 98%. Next is Above 90 at 95.5%. $25K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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