The Prediction Markets

Ted Cruz # posts November 13 - November 20, 2026?

Starts in 2 daysKickoff
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
7 min ago
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What the markets expect

80-99 43.5%

Next is 100-119 at 36.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
80-99
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Polymarket
100-119
36.3%
Polymarket 36.3%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 62.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
36.3%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
62.9¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
120-139
35.6%
Polymarket 35.6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
35.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
35.6%
Polymarket 35.6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
35.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 60.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
60.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
20-39
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
200+
27.7%
Polymarket 27.7%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 54.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $184 (1.84x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
27.7%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
54.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$184 (1.84x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 53.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $186 (1.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
53.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$186 (1.86x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket
20
26.7%
Polymarket 26.7%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 53.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $188 (1.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
26.7%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
53.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$188 (1.88x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 80-99
  • 100-119
  • 120-139

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ted Cruz # posts November 13 - November 20, 2026?". 80-99 leads at 43.5%. Next is 100-119 at 36.3%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between November 13, 12:00 PM ET and November 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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