The Prediction Markets

Ted Cruz # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?

Starts in 43 hKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

200+ 31.3%

Next is 140-159 at 15.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

200+ 31.3%140-159 15.4%160-179 12.7%120-139 10.9%180-199 10.9%6 others 18.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
200+
31.3%
Polymarket 34.5%(31.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
31.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
15.4%
Polymarket 17%(15.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
12.7%
Polymarket 14%(12.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Polymarket
120-139
10.9%
Polymarket 12%(10.9% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
10.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
10.9%
Polymarket 12%(10.9% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
10.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Polymarket
100-119
8.6%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
80-99
6.4%
Polymarket 7%(6.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$339
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
1.8%
Polymarket 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Polymarket
20
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
20-39
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 200+
  • 140-159
  • 160-179

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ted Cruz # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?". 200+ leads at 31.3%. Next is 140-159 at 15.4%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between November 6, 12:00 PM ET and November 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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