The Prediction Markets

Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

140-159 31.7%

Next is 160-179 at 29.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

140-159 31.7%160-179 29.2%120-139 14.6%100-119 10.2%180-199 7.2%4 others 7.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
140-159
31.7%
Polymarket 39%(31.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
39%
Fair, margin removed
31.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
29.2%
Polymarket 36%(29.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
29.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
120-139
14.6%
Polymarket 18%(14.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
14.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
100-119
10.2%
Polymarket 12.5%(10.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
7.2%
Polymarket 8.9%(7.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $633 (6.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
8.9%
Fair, margin removed
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$633 (6.33x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket
200+
4.4%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
80-99
2.4%
Polymarket 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 140-159
  • 160-179
  • 120-139

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?". 140-159 leads at 31.7%. Next is 160-179 at 29.2%. $8K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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