The Prediction Markets

Tennessee Republican Senate nominee? (2028)

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Glenn Jacobs 33.1%

Next is Tim Burchett at 31.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Glenn Jacobs 33.1%Tim Burchett 31.3%Damon Hininger 5.8%Chuck Fleischmann 5%Stuart McWhorter 4.1%7 others 20.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Glenn Jacobs
33.1%
Kalshi 35%(33.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Jacobs
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
33.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Burchett
31.3%
Kalshi 33%(31.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Burchett
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
31.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Damon Hininger
5.8%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Damon Hininger
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Chuck Fleischmann
5%
Kalshi 5.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chuck Fleischmann
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Stuart McWhorter
4.1%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stuart McWhorter
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Ogles
3.4%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Ogles
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
John Rose
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Rose
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Monty Fritts
3.1%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monty Fritts
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Cameron Sexton
3%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Sexton
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack Johnson
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack Johnson
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Diana Harshbarger
2.6%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diana Harshbarger
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Van Epps
2.5%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Van Epps
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tennessee Republican Party, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Glenn Jacobs
  • Tim Burchett
  • Damon Hininger

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tennessee Republican Senate nominee? (2028)". Glenn Jacobs leads at 33.1%. Next is Tim Burchett at 31.3%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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