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What the markets expect
Above 61,000 MW 98%
Next is Above 61,500 MW at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 61,000 MW98%98%97¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 61,000 MW98%Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 61,000 MW
98%
98%
97¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 61,000 MW
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 61,000 MW
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 61,500 MW98%98%94¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 61,500 MW98%Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 61,500 MW
98%
98%
94¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 61,500 MW
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 61,500 MW
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $8
Above 62,000 MW96%96%93¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 62,000 MW96%Kalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 62,000 MW
96%
96%
93¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 62,000 MW
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 62,000 MW
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $8
Above 63,000 MW95%95%76¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 2 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 63,000 MW95%Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 63,000 MW
95%
95%
76¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 63,000 MW
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 63,000 MW
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $80
Above 62,500 MW94%94%91¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 2 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Above 62,500 MW94%Kalshi 94%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 62,500 MW
94%
94%
91¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 62,500 MW
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 62,500 MW
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $8
Above 63,500 MW76%76%59¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 2 min ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Above 63,500 MW76%Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Above 63,500 MW
76%
76%
59¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Above 63,500 MW
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 63,500 MW
- Last price
- 76%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $1
Above 64,000 MW59%59%43¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 2 min ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Above 64,000 MW59%Kalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Above 64,000 MW
59%
59%
43¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Above 64,000 MW
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 64,000 MW
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $1
Above 64,500 MW37%37%23¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 2 min ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Above 64,500 MW37%Kalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Above 64,500 MW
37%
37%
23¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Above 64,500 MW
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 64,500 MW
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $1
Above 66,000 MW10.5%10.5%2¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 2 min ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Above 66,000 MW10.5%Kalshi 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Above 66,000 MW
10.5%
10.5%
2¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Above 66,000 MW
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 66,000 MW
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
Above 65,500 MW9%9%4¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 2 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Above 65,500 MW9%Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 65,500 MW
9%
9%
4¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 65,500 MW
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 65,500 MW
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $694
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Above 65,000 MW7%7%7¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 2 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Above 65,000 MW7%Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 65,000 MW
7%
7%
7¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 65,000 MW
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 65,000 MW
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $1
Above 67,000 MW3.5%3.5%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 67,000 MW3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 67,000 MW
3.5%
3.5%
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 67,000 MW
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 67,000 MW
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 67,500 MW3%3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 67,500 MW3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 67,500 MW
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 67,500 MW
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 67,500 MW
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 69,000 MW3%3%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Above 69,000 MW3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 69,000 MW
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 69,000 MW
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 69,000 MW
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $50
Above 69,500 MW3%3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 69,500 MW3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 69,500 MW
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 69,500 MW
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 69,500 MW
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $250
Above 68,000 MW2.5%2.5%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 68,000 MW2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 68,000 MW
2.5%
2.5%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 68,000 MW
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 68,000 MW
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 66,500 MW2%2%2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 66,500 MW2%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 66,500 MW
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 66,500 MW
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 66,500 MW
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 68,500 MW2%2%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Above 68,500 MW2%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 68,500 MW
2%
2%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 68,500 MW
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 68,500 MW
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 70,000 MW2%2%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Above 70,000 MW2%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 70,000 MW
2%
2%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 70,000 MW
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 70,000 MW
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 61,000 MW
- Above 61,500 MW
- Above 62,000 MW
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 23, 2026". Above 61,000 MW leads at 98%. Next is Above 61,500 MW at 98%. $1K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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