The Prediction Markets

Texas gas prices in Oct 2026

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$30K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.7000 73%

Next is Above 4.0500 at 58%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.7000
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7000
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$941
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0500
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0500
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.8500
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8500
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0000
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0000
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$946
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.6500
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.6500
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1000
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1000
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.9500
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.9500
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.7500
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7500
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.8000
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8000
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.9000
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.9000
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 4.2000
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2000
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1500
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1500
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2500
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2500
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.7000
  • Above 4.0500
  • Above 3.8500

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas gas prices in Oct 2026". Above 3.7000 leads at 73%. Next is Above 4.0500 at 58%. $30K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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