The Prediction Markets

Texas Senate Election Matchup

Closed
Mar 3, 2026
Traded
$721K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 161 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Talarico & Paxton
62.1%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico & Paxton
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$275K
Trade this on Polymarket
Talarico & Cornyn
37.3%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico & Cornyn
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$197K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crockett & Paxton
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crockett & Paxton
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crockett & Cornyn
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crockett & Cornyn
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crockett & Hunt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crockett & Hunt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Talarico & Hunt
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico & Hunt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Talarico & Paxton
  • Talarico & Cornyn
  • Crockett & Paxton

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Texas Senate Election Matchup". Talarico & Paxton last traded at 62.1%. Next is Talarico & Cornyn at 37.3%. $721K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 3, 2026.

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary. This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections. This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution. If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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