The Prediction Markets

Toulon Mayoral Election Winner

Closed
Mar 22, 2026
Traded
$593K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 22, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 210 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Josée Massi
99.8%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5055 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Josée Massi
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
Isaline Cornil
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5055 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isaline Cornil
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Michel Ghiotto
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5055 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Michel Ghiotto
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Laure Lavalette
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5055 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laure Lavalette
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Magali Brunel
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5055 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magali Brunel
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$455K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michel Bonnus
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5055 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel Bonnus
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Josée Massi
  • Isaline Cornil
  • Jean-Michel Ghiotto

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Toulon Mayoral Election Winner". Josée Massi last traded at 99.8%. Next is Isaline Cornil at 0.1%. $593K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 22, 2026.

Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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