The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8)

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$56K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 150 98%

Next is Above 160 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 150
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 185
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 195
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 195
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$890
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 205
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 150
  • Above 160
  • Above 170

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8)". Above 150 leads at 98%. Next is Above 160 at 96%. $56K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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