The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 - 11/8)

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$18.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 89.5%

Next is Above 15 at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
89.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$440K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 15
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 27
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 27
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
8.9%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$16.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
December
7.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
December
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 30
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 35
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
November
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
November
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 40
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
October
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
October
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
  • Above 15
  • Above 20

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 - 11/8)". No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 leads at 89.5%. Next is Above 15 at 85%. $18.6M has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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