The Prediction Markets

Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

0-3 points behind 38.5%

Next is 6-9 points behind at 31.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

0-3 points behind 38.5%6-9 points behind 31.3%Runs ahead 13.9%3-6 points behind 12.3%9+ points behind 4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
0-3 points behind
38.5%
Polymarket 34.5%(38.5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
0-3 points behind
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
6-9 points behind
31.3%
Polymarket 28%(31.3% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
6-9 points behind
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
31.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Runs ahead
13.9%
Polymarket 12.5%(14% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Runs ahead
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3-6 points behind
12.3%
Polymarket 11%(12.3% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
3-6 points behind
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
9+ points behind
4%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
9+ points behind
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0-3 points behind
  • 6-9 points behind
  • Runs ahead

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)". 0-3 points behind leads at 38.5%. Next is 6-9 points behind at 31.3%. $7K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 Maine general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Maine, and Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maine. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Troy Jackson’s vote share in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election falls below Hannah Pingree’s vote share in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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