The Prediction Markets

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Closed
Apr 7, 2026
Traded
$913K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 7, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 199 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
99.4%
Polymarket 99.4%polled, 4783 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
99.4%
As of
Polled 199 d ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
99.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$913K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?". Yes last traded at 99.4%. $913K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 7, 2026.

Donald Trump announced a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz of Tuesday, April 7, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/world/middleeast/trump-threat-strait-peace.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump officially announces that this deadline has been extended or will not be enforced by Tuesday April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly state that the deadline has been extended or will not be enforced, including by providing a new deadline or through statements such as “the deadline has been moved back.” Broader statements, such as “we made good progress with Iran,” will qualify only if they are clearly and explicitly made in the context of an announcement that the deadline is being extended or not being enforced. If no qualifying announcement has been made by Tuesday, April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”, regardless of whether the deadline is enforced. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, including on his official social media accounts. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify a qualifying announcement.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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