The Prediction Markets

Trump approval rating at least ___ on November 6?

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$584K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

36.0+ 96.5%

Next is 37.0+ at 95.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
36.0+
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
36.0+
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98.5¢
Sell Yes
94.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Polymarket
37.0+
95.9%
Polymarket 95.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
37.0+
Last price
95.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
93.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Polymarket
38.0+
95.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
38.0+
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 36%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 36%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$98K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 37.6%
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 37.6%
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
39.0+
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
39.0+
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 35%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 35%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 34%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 34%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 33%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 33%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 43%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 43%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Above 47%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 47%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 44%
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 44%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
40.0+
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
40.0+
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$783
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 49%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 49%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 45%
2.6%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 45%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 46%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 46%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 48%
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 48%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
41.0+
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
41.0+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$946
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 50%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: VoteHub, VoteHub

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 36.0+
  • 37.0+
  • 38.0+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 36.0+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Trump approval rating at least ___ on November 6?". 36.0+ leads at 96.5%. Next is 37.0+ at 95.9%. $584K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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