The Prediction Markets

Trump impeached and removed before 2028?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$5.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 72%

Next is Before Oct 1, 2027 at 69%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2027
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2027
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$481K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before his term ends
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before his term ends
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$906K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
18.2%
Polymarket 18.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $521 (5.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
18.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19.2¢
Sell Yes
17.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$521 (5.21x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Feb 1, 2027
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
1.2%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress, U.S. Senate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
  • Before Aug 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 1, 2028 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Trump impeached and removed before 2028?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 72%. Next is Before Oct 1, 2027 at 69%. $5.1M has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is impeached and removed from the office of President of the United States by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Donald Trump on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify. This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Donald Trump vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction. Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market. A transfer of presidential powers to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment will not qualify and will not count as leaving office. If Donald Trump formally leaves the office of President of the United States for any reason before a qualifying conviction, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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