The Prediction Markets

Trump-Xi Summit: What will China announce by May 22?

Closed
May 22, 2026
Traded
$325K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 22, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
U.S. Oil Purchase
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 3829 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
U.S. Soybean Purchase
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rare Earth Export Relief
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 3829 h agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rare Earth Export Relief
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
U.S. Oil Purchase
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 3829 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
U.S. Oil Purchase
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Participation in Iran Negotiations
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 3829 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Participation in Iran Negotiations
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • U.S. Oil Purchase
  • Rare Earth Export Relief
  • U.S. Oil Purchase

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Trump-Xi Summit: What will China announce by May 22?". U.S. Oil Purchase last traded at 24.5%. Next is Rare Earth Export Relief at 13.7%. $325K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, the Chinese government, or any authorized representative of the Chinese government announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on the United States between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tariff reductions specifically announced in relation to the United States, goods from the United States, or a specific set of countries including the United States will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market's resolution. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market's time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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