The Prediction Markets

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Closed
May 26, 2026
Traded
$89K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on May 26, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.2–1.5M
39.8%
Polymarket 34.9%(39.8% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 53.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $188 (1.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2–1.5M
Last price
34.9%
Fair, margin removed
39.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
53.2¢
Sell Yes
16.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$188 (1.88x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.8–2.1M
19.2%
Polymarket 16.9%(19.2% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 30.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $332 (3.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.8–2.1M
Last price
16.9%
Fair, margin removed
19.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
30.1¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$332 (3.32x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.9–1.2M
17.1%
Polymarket 15%(17.1% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.9–1.2M
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
17.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6–0.9M
9.7%
Polymarket 8.5%(9.7% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6–0.9M
Last price
8.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5–1.8M
7.7%
Polymarket 6.8%(7.7% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5–1.8M
Last price
6.8%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6M
3.6%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6M
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
2.1–2.4M
1.4%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.1–2.4M
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.4–2.7M
0.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4–2.7M
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.7M+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.7M+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.2–1.5M
  • 1.8–2.1M
  • 0.9–1.2M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff". 1.2–1.5M last traded at 39.8%. Next is 1.8–2.1M at 19.2%. $89K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 26, 2026.

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets