The Prediction Markets

Uber - Request a ride app downloads in November 2026

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 32 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 93 70.5%

Next is Above 96 at 67%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 93
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 93
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 96
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 96
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 97.5
66.5%
Kalshi 66.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 97.5
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 99
58.5%
Kalshi 58.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 99
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100.5
55.5%
Kalshi 55.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100.5
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 101.5
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 101.5
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 103
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 103
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$799
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 106.5
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 106.5
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 93
  • Above 96
  • Above 97.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Uber - Request a ride app downloads in November 2026". Above 93 leads at 70.5%. Next is Above 96 at 67%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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