The Prediction Markets

UEFA Nations League: Group A4 Winner

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 19 days
Traded
$89K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Portugal 99%

Next is Spain at 80.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Portugal
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 9 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$601
Trade this on Kalshi
Spain
80.5%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spain
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
France
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
France
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Netherlands
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Italy
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Greece
25.4%
Polymarket 25.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $388 (3.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greece
Last price
25.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25.8¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$388 (3.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
England
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
England
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Germany
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Norway
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Belgium
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $787 (7.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belgium
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.7¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$787 (7.87x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Denmark
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Wales
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wales
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, UEFA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • France

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Portugal for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UEFA Nations League: Group A4 Winner". Portugal leads at 99%. Next is Spain at 80.5%. $89K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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