The Prediction Markets

University—Rosedale By-Election Winner

Closed
Apr 13, 2026
Traded
$58K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 13, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Danielle Martin
99.3%
Polymarket 99.7%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Martin
Last price
99.7%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
99.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Don Hodgson
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Don Hodgson
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Massey
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Massey
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy D’Andrea
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy D’Andrea
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bill Whatcott
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Whatcott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
Imran Khan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Imran Khan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Leslie Bory
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leslie Bory
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Raiden DeDominicis
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raiden DeDominicis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
Samuel Baxter
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samuel Baxter
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Serena Purdy
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4708 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Serena Purdy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$848
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Danielle Martin
  • Don Hodgson
  • Andrew Massey

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner". Danielle Martin last traded at 99.3%. Next is Don Hodgson at 0.3%. $58K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 13, 2026.

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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