The Prediction Markets

US gas prices this week

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$1.4M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 4.1200 99%

Next is Above 4.1600 at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 4.1200
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1200
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1600
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1600
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1800
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1800
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2200
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2200
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1000
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1000
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1400
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1400
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2000
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2000
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2400
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2400
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2600
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2600
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2800
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2800
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$240K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 4.3000
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3000
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$227K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.3200
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3200
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.3400
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3400
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.3600
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3600
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$146K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.3800
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3800
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4200
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4200
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4000
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4400
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4400
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4600
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4600
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4800
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4800
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5000
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.1200
  • Above 4.1600
  • Above 4.1800

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US gas prices this week". Above 4.1200 leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.1600 at 99%. $1.4M has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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