The Prediction Markets

US GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Closes
Jan 29, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$92K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 94%

Next is Above 0.5% at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$946
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0% to 2.5%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0% to 2.5%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
4.0%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5% to 2.0%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $465 (4.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5% to 2.0%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$465 (4.65x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5% to 3.0%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5% to 3.0%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5% to 4.0%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5% to 4.0%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0% to 3.5%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0% to 3.5%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US GDP growth in Q4 2026?". Above 0.0% leads at 94%. Next is Above 0.5% at 92%. $92K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 29, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for January 28, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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