The Prediction Markets

USD/JPY price on Oct 23, 2026 at 10am EDT?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 14 hours
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

156.500 to 156.749 18.4%

Next is 156.250 to 156.499 at 16.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

156.500 to 156.749 18.4%156.250 to 156.499 16.3%156.750 to 156.999 15.3%156.000 to 156.249 11.2%157.000 to 157.249 9.2%10 others 29.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
156.500 to 156.749
18.4%
Kalshi 18%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
156.500 to 156.749
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
156.250 to 156.499
16.3%
Kalshi 16%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
156.250 to 156.499
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
156.750 to 156.999
15.3%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
156.750 to 156.999
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
156.000 to 156.249
11.2%
Kalshi 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
156.000 to 156.249
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
157.000 to 157.249
9.2%
Kalshi 9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
157.000 to 157.249
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
157.250 to 157.499
7.2%
Kalshi 7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
157.250 to 157.499
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi
155.750 to 155.999
5.1%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
155.750 to 155.999
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
155.500 to 155.749
4.1%
Kalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
155.500 to 155.749
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
155.499 or below
3.1%
Kalshi 3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
155.499 or below
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
157.500 to 157.749
2.6%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
157.500 to 157.749
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
158.250 to 158.499
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
158.250 to 158.499
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
157.750 to 157.999
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
157.750 to 157.999
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
158.000 to 158.249
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
158.000 to 158.249
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
158.500 to 158.749
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
158.500 to 158.749
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
158.75 or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
158.75 or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ICE

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 156.500 to 156.749
  • 156.250 to 156.499
  • 156.750 to 156.999

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "USD/JPY price on Oct 23, 2026 at 10am EDT?". 156.500 to 156.749 leads at 18.4%. Next is 156.250 to 156.499 at 16.3%. $4K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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