The Prediction Markets

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$101K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 23, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ben McAdams
87.3%
Polymarket 88.5%(87.3% fair)polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben McAdams
Last price
88.5%
Fair, margin removed
87.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nate Blouin
12.3%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Blouin
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian King
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian King
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caroline Gleich
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caroline Gleich
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Erin Mendenhall
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erin Mendenhall
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jenny Wilson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenny Wilson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kael Weston
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kael Weston
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kathleen Riebe
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kathleen Riebe
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luz Escamilla
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luz Escamilla
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ben McAdams
  • Nate Blouin
  • Brian King

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner". Ben McAdams last traded at 87.3%. Next is Nate Blouin at 12.3%. $101K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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