The Prediction Markets

Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

BJP-led NDA 82%

Next is BJP-led NDA at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
BJP-led NDA
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
BJP-led NDA
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
BJP-led NDA
81%
Polymarket 81%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
BJP
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
SP-Congress alliance
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
SP-Congress alliance
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Kalshi
SP
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
SP
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bahujan Samaj Party
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bahujan Samaj Party
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
BSP
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
BSP
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Polymarket
INC
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
INC
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Election Commission of India

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • BJP-led NDA
  • BJP-led NDA
  • SP-Congress alliance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list BJP-led NDA for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly Election Winner". BJP-led NDA leads at 82%. Next is BJP-led NDA at 81%. $8K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Legislative Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Uttar Pradesh, India, in February–March 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election. Independent candidates will not be considered for resolution. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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