The Prediction Markets

Vermont Governor Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 230K 93.5%

Next is Above 260K at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 230K
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
275K-300K
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
275K-300K
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 300K
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
300K-325K
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
300K-325K
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
325K-350K
16.9%
Polymarket 16.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $483 (4.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
325K-350K
Last price
16.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.7¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$483 (4.83x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
350K+
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
350K+
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
12.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$935
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 340K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 370K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 370K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
225K
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $752 (7.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
225K
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.3¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$752 (7.52x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Polymarket
250K-275K
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
250K-275K
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Polymarket
225K-250K
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
225K-250K
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vermont Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 230K
  • Above 260K
  • Above 270K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 230K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Vermont Governor Election: Turnout". Above 230K leads at 93.5%. Next is Above 260K at 81%. $18K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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