The Prediction Markets

WA-03 House election: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

At least 46% 99%

Next is At least 48% at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 46%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 48%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52%
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 53%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 53%
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 55%
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 55%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 56%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 58%
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 60%
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 62%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 62%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Olympia, WA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 46%
  • At least 48%
  • At least 50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "WA-03 House election: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vote percent". At least 46% leads at 99%. Next is At least 48% at 98%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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