The Prediction Markets

West Tamar Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rick Shegog 69.2%

Next is Carl Cooper at 20.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Rick Shegog 69.2%Carl Cooper 20.1%Christina Holmdahl 6.1%Caroline Larner 4.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Rick Shegog
69.2%
Polymarket 62%(69.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Shegog
Last price
62%
Fair, margin removed
69.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carl Cooper
20.1%
Polymarket 18%(20.1% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carl Cooper
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
20.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Christina Holmdahl
6.1%
Polymarket 5.5%(6.1% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christina Holmdahl
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caroline Larner
4.6%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caroline Larner
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rick Shegog
  • Carl Cooper
  • Christina Holmdahl

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "West Tamar Mayoral Election Winner". Rick Shegog leads at 69.2%. Next is Carl Cooper at 20.1%. $9K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the West Tamar Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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