The Prediction Markets

West Virginia Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 390K 95.5%

Next is Above 430K at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 390K
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 390K
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 430K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 430K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 470K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 470K
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 510K
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 510K
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Kalshi
450K-500K
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
450K-500K
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
500K-550K
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
500K-550K
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 550K
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 550K
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 590K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 590K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
400K-450K
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
400K-450K
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 630K
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 630K
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 670K
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 670K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
650K+
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
650K+
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
550K-600K
7.4%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
550K-600K
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Polymarket
600K-650K
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K-650K
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 900K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 710K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 710K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 750K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 750K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 790K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 790K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 830K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 830K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 860K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 860K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
400K
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
400K
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: West Virginia Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 390K
  • Above 430K
  • Above 470K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 390K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "West Virginia Senate Election: Turnout". Above 390K leads at 95.5%. Next is Above 430K at 89%. $17K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets