Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
November 15, 12:00 AM ET 96.5%
Next is November 14, 12:00 PM ET at 89.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
November 15, 12:00 AM ET96.5%96.5%96.1¢ bid, 96.8¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed96.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)November 15, 12:00 AM ET96.5%Polymarket 96.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 96.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
November 15, 12:00 AM ET
96.5%
96.5%
96.1¢ bid, 96.8¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
96.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
November 15, 12:00 AM ET
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 96.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 15, 12:00 AM ET
- Last price
- 96.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 96.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $1K
November 14, 12:00 PM ET89.5%89.5%89¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)November 14, 12:00 PM ET89.5%Polymarket 89.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
November 14, 12:00 PM ET
89.5%
89.5%
89¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
90¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
November 14, 12:00 PM ET
89.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 14, 12:00 PM ET
- Last price
- 89.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $150
Any specific cause confirmed83%Not listed83%82¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Any specific cause confirmed83%Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Any specific cause confirmed
83%
Not listed
83%
82¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Any specific cause confirmed
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Any specific cause confirmed
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
Equipment or system failure75%Not listed75%73¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, just now75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Equipment or system failure75%Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Equipment or system failure
75%
Not listed
75%
73¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, just now
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Equipment or system failure
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Equipment or system failure
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $19K
Software or configuration error72%Not listed72%69¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, just now72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Software or configuration error72%Kalshi 72%polled, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Software or configuration error
72%
Not listed
72%
69¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, just now
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Software or configuration error
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Software or configuration error
- Last price
- 72%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $13K
November 14, 12:00 AM ET67.5%67.5%66¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed69¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $145 (1.45x)November 14, 12:00 AM ET67.5%Polymarket 67.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
November 14, 12:00 AM ET
67.5%
67.5%
66¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
69¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
November 14, 12:00 AM ET
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 14, 12:00 AM ET
- Last price
- 67.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $2K
SMART AI system60%Not listed60%55¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, just now70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)SMART AI system60%Kalshi 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
SMART AI system
60%
Not listed
60%
55¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, just now
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
SMART AI system
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SMART AI system
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $6K
Cyberattack50.5%Not listed50.5%1¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askCyberattack50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, just now
Cyberattack
50.5%
Not listed
50.5%
1¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Cyberattack
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, just now
Jamming or sabotage50.5%Not listed50.5%1¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askJamming or sabotage50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, just now
Jamming or sabotage
50.5%
Not listed
50.5%
1¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Jamming or sabotage
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jamming or sabotage
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
Human error47%Not listed47%43¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, just now47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Human error47%Kalshi 47%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Human error
47%
Not listed
47%
43¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, just now
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Human error
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Human error
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
Show 7 more outcomesHide 7 outcomes
November 13, 10:00 PM ET46.5%46.5%45¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)November 13, 10:00 PM ET46.5%Polymarket 46.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
November 13, 10:00 PM ET
46.5%
46.5%
45¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
November 13, 10:00 PM ET
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 13, 10:00 PM ET
- Last price
- 46.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $13K
Telecom carrier or contractor fault32%Not listed32%31¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Telecom carrier or contractor fault32%Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Telecom carrier or contractor fault
32%
Not listed
32%
31¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Telecom carrier or contractor fault
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Telecom carrier or contractor fault
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $6K
November 13, 8:00 PM ET29.5%29.5%26¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed33¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $303 (3.03x)November 13, 8:00 PM ET29.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
November 13, 8:00 PM ET
29.5%
29.5%
26¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
33¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
November 13, 8:00 PM ET
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 13, 8:00 PM ET
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $24K
Maintenance or upgrade work13%Not listed13%12¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, just now15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Maintenance or upgrade work13%Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Maintenance or upgrade work
13%
Not listed
13%
12¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, just now
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Maintenance or upgrade work
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maintenance or upgrade work
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $9K
AI tool or agent error12%Not listed12%10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)AI tool or agent error12%Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
AI tool or agent error
12%
Not listed
12%
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
AI tool or agent error
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AI tool or agent error
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Cable cut or physical damage5%Not listed5%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Cable cut or physical damage5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Cable cut or physical damage
5%
Not listed
5%
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Cable cut or physical damage
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cable cut or physical damage
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
November 13, 6:00 PM ET2.1%2.1%1.7¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)November 13, 6:00 PM ET2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
November 13, 6:00 PM ET
2.1%
2.1%
1.7¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
November 13, 6:00 PM ET
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 13, 6:00 PM ET
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $14K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- November 15, 12:00 AM ET
- November 14, 12:00 PM ET
- Any specific cause confirmed
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list November 15, 12:00 AM ET for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?". November 15, 12:00 AM ET leads at 96.5%. Next is November 14, 12:00 PM ET at 89.5%. $110K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More politics markets
See all politics markets- 2028 Democratic nominee for President?Jon Ossoff25%$291.5M traded
- Netanyahu out by...?June 30, 202767.5%$125.4M traded
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?Jon Ossoff18%$101.9M traded
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro90.9%$100.2M traded
- 2028 Republican nominee for President?J.D. Vance35%$93.8M traded
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes8.5%$80.2M traded