The Prediction Markets

What countries will Trump say in November?

Starts in 4 daysKickoff
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Germany / German 99.5%

Next is Mexico / Mexican at 99.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Germany / German
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Germany / German
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Mexico / Mexican
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico / Mexican
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
South Korea / South Korean
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
South Korea / South Korean
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Strait / Hormuz / Blockade
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strait / Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
99.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
Afghanistan / Afghan
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Afghanistan / Afghan
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Congo / Congolese
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Congo / Congolese
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$442
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuba / Cuban
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Cuba / Cuban
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
73¢
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Denmark / Danish
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark / Danish
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi
France / French
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
France / French
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 74 more outcomes
Japan / Japanese
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Japan / Japanese
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poland / Polish
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Poland / Polish
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
82¢
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Somalia / Somali
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Somalia / Somali
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
China
98.7%
Polymarket 98.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
98.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Veto
98.6%
Polymarket 98.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Veto
Last price
98.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Polymarket
Colombia / Colombian
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Colombia / Colombian
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
79¢
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Egypt / Egyptian
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Egypt / Egyptian
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
North Korea / North Korean
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
North Korea / North Korean
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
72¢
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Italy / Italian
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Italy / Italian
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Spain / Spanish
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spain / Spanish
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Yemen / Yemeni
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yemen / Yemeni
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Transgender
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Polymarket
Impeach / Impeachment / Impeached
89.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Impeach / Impeachment / Impeached
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
India / Indian
87.5%
Kalshi 87.5%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
India / Indian
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
75¢
Trade this on Kalshi
United Kingdom / British
87.5%
Kalshi 87.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Kingdom / British
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Keep America Great
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keep America Great
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Polymarket
Qatar / Qatari
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Qatar / Qatari
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
74¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Congo / Congolese
85.5%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Congratulations / Congrats
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Polymarket
Norway / Norwegian
85.5%
Kalshi 85.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norway / Norwegian
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brazil / Brazilian
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brazil / Brazilian
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
Ireland / Irish
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ireland / Irish
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Argentina / Argentinian
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina / Argentinian
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Australia / Australian
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Australia / Australian
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
UAE / United Arab Emirates
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
UAE / United Arab Emirates
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Turkey / Turkish
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turkey / Turkish
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Space Force
78.5%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Space Force
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Taiwan / Taiwanese
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taiwan / Taiwanese
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Bibi
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bibi
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Polymarket
Voter Fraud
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Voter Fraud
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Polymarket
Rigged Election
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rigged Election
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Polymarket
Palestine / Palestinian
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palestine / Palestinian
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Shut Up
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shut Up
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Clown
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clown
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Switzerland / Swiss
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Switzerland / Swiss
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Gay
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gay
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bahrain / Bahraini
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bahrain / Bahraini
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Fake News
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fake News
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Panama / Panamanian
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Panama / Panamanian
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Nazi
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nazi
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Corrupt Elections
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Corrupt Elections
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Polymarket
Third Term
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Third Term
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Filibuster
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Mandate
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mandate
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Paid Protester
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paid Protester
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Refund
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Refund
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Artificial
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Artificial
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Tariff
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tariff
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / SI
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / SI
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Red Wave
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Red Wave
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prediction
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prediction
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Shark
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shark
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Kuwait / Kuwaiti
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kuwait / Kuwaiti
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Brazil
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brazil
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Autism
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Autism
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Corrupt / Corruption 5+ times
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Corrupt / Corruption 5+ times
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Polymarket
Make Iran Great Again
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Mail-in
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mail-in
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Polymarket
South Africa / South African
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Africa / South African
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Rigged 5+ times
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rigged 5+ times
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Polymarket
Iceland / Icelandic
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iceland / Icelandic
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hungary / Hungarian
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hungary / Hungarian
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$247
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Epstein
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket
Belgium / Belgian
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium / Belgian
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Kalshi
Sudan / Sudanese
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sudan / Sudanese
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Weightlifter
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Weightlifter
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Christmas
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christmas
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Polymarket
Fraud / Fraudulent 5+ times
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fraud / Fraudulent 5+ times
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
Paraguay / Paraguayan
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paraguay / Paraguayan
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamaica / Jamaican
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamaica / Jamaican
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rocket Man
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rocket Man
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Polymarket
Allah
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allah
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Germany / German
  • Mexico / Mexican
  • Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Germany / German for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What countries will Trump say in November?". Germany / German leads at 99.5%. Next is Mexico / Mexican at 99.5%. $36K has traded across 84 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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