The Prediction Markets

What foods will Trump mention in October?

Starts in 9 daysKickoff
Traded
$98K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Autism 99%

Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Autism
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Autism
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Predict / Prediction
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Predict / Prediction
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cake
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cake
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Polymarket
Chicken
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicken
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Burger
50.4%
Polymarket 50.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Burger
Last price
50.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Cucumber
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cucumber
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Fat shot / Ozempic
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fat shot / Ozempic
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Kalshi
Antifa
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antifa
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
UFO / UAP
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
UFO / UAP
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Peace in the Middle East
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peptide
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peptide
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Autism
  • Predict / Prediction
  • Cake

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Autism for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What foods will Trump mention in October?". Autism leads at 99%. Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. $98K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets