The Prediction Markets

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

Closed
Apr 30, 2026
Traded
$3.6M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$717K
Trade this on Polymarket
Enrichment of Uranium
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Enrichment of Uranium
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Oil Sanction Relief
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oil Sanction Relief
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$340K
Trade this on Polymarket
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$335K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
  • Enrichment of Uranium
  • Oil Sanction Relief

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?". Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz last traded at 0.4%. Next is Enrichment of Uranium at 0.1%. $3.6M has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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