The Prediction Markets

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Starts in 5 daysKickoff
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Defence 76%

Next is Mr Speaker 30+ times at 73.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Defence
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Defence
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr Speaker 30+ times
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr Speaker 30+ times
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Scotland
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scotland
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Polymarket
Reform
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reform
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Polymarket
Trump
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Wales
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wales
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
NHS
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
NHS
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Immigration
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Immigration
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
No Qualifying Event-
23.8%
Polymarket 23.8%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 47.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $211 (2.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
23.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$211 (2.11x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Defence
  • Mr Speaker 30+ times
  • Scotland

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?". Defence leads at 76%. Next is Mr Speaker 30+ times at 73.5%. $1K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

Andy Burnham is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in a Prime Minister's Question Time event by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Andy Burnham titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/andy-burnham/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the events. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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