The Prediction Markets

What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Ukraine / Ukrainian 81%

Next is Defence at 69.5%. The venues differ most on Trump (Polymarket 12%, Kalshi 10%), a 2.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ukraine / Ukrainian
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine / Ukrainian
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Defence
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Defence
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Polymarket
EU / European Union
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
EU / European Union
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scotland
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scotland
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr Speaker 30+ times
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr Speaker 30+ times
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Polymarket
Energy
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Energy
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Kalshi
Reform
48.8%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reform
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Reform
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 49¢.

Benefit / Welfare
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benefit / Welfare
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Budget
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budget
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wales
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wales
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 16 more outcomes
Immigration
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Immigration
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia / Russian
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Russian
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Kalshi
Tax
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tax
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Kalshi
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Immigrant / Immigration
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Immigrant / Immigration
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$926
Trade this on Kalshi
Brexit
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brexit
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$917
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$319
Trade this on Kalshi
NATO
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
NATO
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
11.2%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$847
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

NHS / Healthcare
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
NHS
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Polymarket
NHS / Healthcare
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
NHS / Healthcare
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$874
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
No Qualifying Event-
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 5, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: UK Parliament
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 5, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ukraine / Ukrainian
  • Defence
  • EU / European Union

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ukraine / Ukrainian for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions?". Ukraine / Ukrainian leads at 81%. Next is Defence at 69.5%. $49K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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