The Prediction Markets

What will be said during the Michigan U.S. Senate debate?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
9 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Muslim Brotherhood 3+ times 21.5%

Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Muslim Brotherhood 3+ times
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Muslim Brotherhood 3+ times
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: youtube.com

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Muslim Brotherhood 3+ times

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will be said during the Michigan U.S. Senate debate?". Muslim Brotherhood 3+ times leads at 21.5%. $6K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 21, 2026.

The final Michigan U.S. Senate debate is scheduled to take place on October 21, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is said by Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers, or a moderator during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the Michigan U.S. Senate debate on October 21, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets