The Prediction Markets

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in November 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$61K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

4,100 86.5%

Next is 4,000 at 72.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4,100
86.5%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,100
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,000
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,000
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4,200
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,200
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,900
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,900
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Polymarket
4,300
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,300
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,800
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,800
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,400
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,400
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,700
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,700
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,500
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,500
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,600
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,600
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
3,500
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,500
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,600
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,600
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,400
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,400
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,300
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,300
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4,100
  • 4,000
  • 4,200

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in November 2026?". 4,100 leads at 86.5%. Next is 4,000 at 72.5%. $61K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in November 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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