The Prediction Markets

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

4,000 70.2%

Next is 4,050 at 55%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4,000
70.2%
Polymarket 70.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 81.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,000
Last price
70.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81.9¢
Sell Yes
58.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,050
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,050
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
3,950
18.1%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 21.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $457 (4.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,950
Last price
18.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.9¢
Sell Yes
14.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$457 (4.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,100
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,100
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4,200
7.4%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,200
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$704 (7.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,250
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,250
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,800
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,800
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4,150
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,150
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,900
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,900
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
4,300
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,300
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
4,400
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,400
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
4,450
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,450
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
3,850
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,850
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
3,750
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,750
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4,500
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,500
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
4,350
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,350
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4,000
  • 4,050
  • 3,950

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 19 2026?". 4,000 leads at 70.2%. Next is 4,050 at 55%. $24K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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