The Prediction Markets

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Closed
Apr 1, 2026
Traded
$106K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 10+ times
95.7%
Polymarket 95.7%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 97.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 10+ times
Last price
95.7%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
97.1¢
Sell Yes
94.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
War
94%
Polymarket 94%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
War
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 20+ times
85.5%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 20+ times
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hundred / Thousand 5+ times
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hundred / Thousand 5+ times
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
NHS
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
NHS
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oil / Gas
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oil / Gas
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
United States
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Green
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Passover / Easter
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Passover / Easter
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Europe
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Europe
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 16 more outcomes
Renewables
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renewables
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Urgent
46.8%
Polymarket 46.8%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 59.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $168 (1.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
Urgent
Last price
46.8%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
59.5¢
Sell Yes
34.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$168 (1.68x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
BMA / British Medical Association
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
BMA / British Medical Association
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Polymarket
National Security
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
National Security
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
U-Turn
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
U-Turn
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nuclear
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kanye / West
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kanye / West
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Deeply Concerning
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deeply Concerning
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket
Trump
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 30+ times
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 30+ times
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kneecap
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kneecap
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Public Health
19.2%
Polymarket 19.2%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 29.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $344 (3.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Public Health
Last price
19.2%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
29.1¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$344 (3.44x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Wireless
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wireless
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Epstein
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Epstein
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shadow Secretary
8.2%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shadow Secretary
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Thank you 10+ times
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thank you 10+ times
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mr. Speaker 10+ times
  • War
  • Mr. Speaker 20+ times

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?". Mr. Speaker 10+ times last traded at 95.7%. Next is War at 94%. $106K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 1, 2026.

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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