The Prediction Markets

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 29, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 177 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 10+
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 10+
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 20+
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 20+
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 30+
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 30+
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
NHS
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
NHS
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$549
Trade this on Polymarket
Nuclear
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Renewable
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Renewable
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
United States
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
War
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4265 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
War
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$680
Trade this on Polymarket
Housing
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Housing
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
Crisis
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crisis
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 17 more outcomes
Victim
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Victim
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Polymarket
Apologize / Apology
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Apologize / Apology
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket
Green
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$451
Trade this on Polymarket
Urgent
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Urgent
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Polymarket
Surveillance
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Surveillance
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Polymarket
Tolerance
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tolerance
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Europe
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Europe
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Deeply Concerning
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deeply Concerning
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mental Health
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mental Health
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Polymarket
U-Turn
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
U-Turn
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Polymarket
Friendship
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Friendship
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shadow Secretary
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shadow Secretary
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Polymarket
Trump
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Macroeconomy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Macroeconomy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$912
Trade this on Polymarket
Sport
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4265 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sport
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 177 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mr. Speaker 10+
  • Mr. Speaker 20+
  • Mr. Speaker 30+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?". Mr. Speaker 10+ last traded at 100%. Next is Mr. Speaker 20+ at 100%. $44K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 29, 2026.

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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