The Prediction Markets

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$33K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 6, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 162 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 10+ times
92.2%
Polymarket 92.2%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 94.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 10+ times
Last price
92.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
94.4¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scotland
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scotland
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Polymarket
Honorable
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Honorable
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$622
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour 3+ times
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour 3+ times
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$545
Trade this on Polymarket
Investment
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Investment
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$869
Trade this on Polymarket
Oil / Gas
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oil / Gas
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Polymarket
Poverty
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Poverty
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Polymarket
Deeply Concerning
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deeply Concerning
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
Jewish
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jewish
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 20+ times
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 20+ times
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Green / Greens
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green / Greens
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket
Northern Ireland
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Northern Ireland
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
NHS
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
NHS
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$905
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Polymarket
Liz / Truss
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liz / Truss
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia / Russian
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Russian
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
Apologize / Apology
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Apologize / Apology
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
Chancellor
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chancellor
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Polymarket
Opposition / Opposite 5+ times
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Opposition / Opposite 5+ times
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Appalling
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Appalling
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
Anti-Semitism / Anti-Semitic
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anti-Semitism / Anti-Semitic
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Polymarket
Brexit
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brexit
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
U-turn
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
U-turn
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Mr. Speaker 30+ times
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mr. Speaker 30+ times
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Polymarket
Olly / Robinson
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olly / Robinson
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Political Stunt
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Political Stunt
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
Trump
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shadow Secretary
10.9%
Polymarket 10.9%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shadow Secretary
Last price
10.9%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Epstein
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Epstein
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Polymarket
Goon / Gooner
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 3889 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Goon / Gooner
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mr. Speaker 10+ times
  • Scotland
  • Honorable

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?". Mr. Speaker 10+ times last traded at 92.2%. Next is Scotland at 72.5%. $33K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 6, 2026.

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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