The Prediction Markets

What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

517.50 84%

Next is 495 at 49.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
517.50
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
517.50
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
495
49.8%
Polymarket 49.8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 98.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
495
Last price
49.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
510
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
510
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$977
Trade this on Polymarket
532.50
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
532.50
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
547.50
9.4%
Polymarket 9.4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 18.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $538 (5.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
547.50
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$538 (5.38x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket
502.50
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
502.50
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
562.50
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
562.50
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
540
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
540
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
487.50
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
487.50
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
555
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
555
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
570
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
570
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
480
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
480
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
577.50
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
577.50
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 517.50
  • 495
  • 510

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of October 19 2026?". 517.50 leads at 84%. Next is 495 at 49.8%. $9K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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